The February 28 conflict and its immediate hit to transactions

On 28 February 2026, coordinated US–Israel strikes on Iran triggered a regional war, with retaliatory missile and drone strikes following in the days after. For a market that had just closed out its strongest year on record, the timing was about as disruptive as it could be.

Dubai property transactions slowed sharply over the following weeks. Volume fell roughly 25% in the first half of March compared to the prior two-week period, and prices pulled back an estimated 4–10% from their pre-war peak depending on segment — apartments in high-density tourist-facing areas saw softer rents, while end-user villa communities held up better.

Despite the shock landing right at quarter-end, Q1 2026 still closed at AED 176.7 billion in total sales, up 23.4% year-on-year. That resilience was built on momentum carried over from a record 2025: AED 917 billion in transactions, the highest total in the emirate's history.

The initial pause was driven more by uncertainty than by a fundamental repricing of the market — a distinction that mattered a great deal for how quickly things turned around in the following quarter.